The Expatriate

View Original

CoreLogic - Australian Million Dollar Markets. Is your suburb there?

Thank you, CoreLogic Australia Economist Kaytlin Ezzy and CoreLogic Australia Team, for sharing the comprehensive data and insights from the CoreLogic Million-Dollar Markets report as of June 2024 with the entire THE EXPATRIATE Community. We’ve put together some key points from the report. We hope you like them.

In August, 29.3% of Australian suburbs had a median house or unit value of $1 million, including 3,426 homes and 1,346 units from 4,772 suburbs. This is an increase from 21.7% in January 2023. The current percentage exceeds the 26.9% recorded in April 2022 at the last market peak. Despite high interest rates, low consumer confidence, and declining affordability, Australia's housing market has remained resilient over the past 18 months, with home values steadily rising since November 2023.

Dwelling values have risen 7.1% last year, adding around $53,000 to the national median. While growth varies by city and region, the number of million-dollar markets has grown by 18.5%, totalling 218.

Last year, 1,057 suburbs had median house values of at least one million, and 122 unit markets reached that threshold. Those figures rose to 1,257 and 140, respectively, over the year. Membership in the million-dollar group is less exclusive now.

At the start of COVID, only 14.3% of house and unit markets met the million-dollar mark, while nearly 30% of suburbs now do. This increase reflects rising values and declining affordability.

Many borrowers will likely spend more of their income on their mortgages, even with rising million-dollar markets. For an $800,000 loan (with a 20% deposit) at the current average mortgage rate of 6.28%, a household would need to earn about $200,000 annually to keep payments on a $1 million home under 30% of their income. This is an increase from around $125,000 needed before the first interest rate hike.

While growth has mostly helped midsized capitals, Sydney remains the priciest capital, with an average home price of $1,180,463. It has 448 house markets and 107 unit markets with seven-figure medians, making up about 40% of the country’s million-dollar markets.

Sydney also experienced the most considerable change in high-value markets, with 46 more markets crossing the million-dollar threshold.

Brisbane gained 46 million-dollar markets, with home values rising 15.0% this year.

Interstate migration and a lack of listings and new homes have pushed Brisbane's values up 65.1% since COVID-19 began. This rise has reduced the city's affordability, leaving it with the second-highest median dwelling value at $875,040 among capital cities.

Perth saw 35 new million-dollar markets and one returning, recording the highest annual growth in home values.

However, its lower starting values resulted in fewer million-dollar markets compared to Sydney and Brisbane. One in four Perth markets are million-dollar areas, making up 7.2% of the nation's total.

In contrast, Melbourne and regional Victoria experienced a 1.0% drop in home values. Factors such as unfavorable tax rules, many new homes, and high supply have pressured values down, leading to fewer new million-dollar neighborhoods in Melbourne and a decline in Regional Victoria.

The Million-Dollar Question. Will the housing market median values continue to grow above one million?

National growth has slowed recently, dropping from a 2.0% increase from January to April to 1.3% from May to August. Almost 30% of suburbs are declining in property values, up from 19.3% in April. While growth will likely slow as spring approaches, values are generally rising despite the easing growth and varying regional conditions, the peak of million-dollar markets may not have been reached.

As of August, 24 suburbs (20 houses and four units) have median values above $990,000 and are experiencing positive growth. Many of these markets may reach the million-dollar mark soon.

What are the key takeaways for each state?

New South Wales

  • Sydney, with a median dwelling value of $1,180,463, has the highest number and share of million-dollar markets in New South Wales.

  • In Sydney, 448 house and 107 unit markets currently have median values of $1 million or more, accounting for 78.3% and 34.1% of the analyzed markets, respectively. With dwelling values up 5.0% over the past year, 46 markets changed status: 23 reentered the million-dollar club after previous declines, and 25 suburbs joined for the first time.

  • New million-dollar club entrants were mainly in the South West and Outer South West regions, while over half of Sydney's re-entrants came from the Central Coast and unit markets in the Inner City, Eastern, and Northern Beaches.

  • Only two suburbs in North Sydney and Hornsby (North Willoughby and Warrawee) had median unit values drop below $1 million this year.

  • In regional NSW, Casuarina homes in the Richmond Tweed region had the highest median value at $2,320,189, a rise of about $217,000 from last year. Currently, 115 markets (111 houses and four units) in regional NSW have a median value of at least $1 million, an increase of 22 from last year's 93.

  • There were six new entrants, 19 re-entrants, and three dropouts from the million-dollar club.

  • Most regional million-dollar markets are near Sydney, particularly in Illawarra (34), Newcastle and Lake Macquarie (25), Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven (16), and Richmond Tweed (22).

Victoria

  • In August, 191 houses and 11 units in Melbourne had median values of $1 million or more, mainly in the Inner South (40), Inner (38), and Inner East (31) regions.

  • Melbourne's housing conditions are weak, with values down 1.0% annually. However, the million-dollar club gained four markets, with seven (6 houses, 1 unit) rejoining and three (2 houses, 1 unit) exiting.

  • Houses in Coburg North ($1,031,811), Keilor East ($1,025,716), and Riddells Creek ($1,006,959) in the North West, Clarinda ($1,014,155) and Gembrook ($1,002,101) in the South East, and McCrae ($1,010,191) on the Mornington Peninsula, plus units in Canterbury ($1,009,009), re-entered the million-dollar club this year.

  • Houses in Scoresby ($995,810), Dromana ($968,578), and units in Bentleigh East ($951,093) saw declines of -3.8%, -8.2%, and -5.2%, respectively. Although slightly higher than last year, Melbourne's million-dollar club membership is still -9.4% below its peak of February 2022, with 210 houses and 13 units valued at over a million.

  • Regional Victoria saw a -1.0% decline in million-dollar markets, the only region to do so alongside Melbourne. Wandana Heights and Apollo Bay had median house values drop below $1 million, leaving just ten suburbs in the million-dollar club.

  • Nine suburbs in Geelong had Lorne as the highest median house value at $1,978,179

Queensland

  • Brisbane and Sydney tied for the largest net change in million-dollar markets, adding 46 house markets (32 new entrants and 14 re-entrants) to the seven-figure club this year. The total now stands at 149, representing 46.0% of the 324 suburbs analyzed for median house values, surpassing the previous peak of 114 (35.2%) in June 2022.

  • Brisbane's unit values rose by 19.4% annually, outpacing houses at 14.1%. However, no unit market exceeded a seven-figure price in August. New Farm's median value was $999,075, and Teneriffe followed at $981,308.

  • Hamilton ($2,332,478) has surpassed Ascot ($2,292,159) as the suburb with the highest median house value, with Hamilton's median house value up 1.2% and Ascot's down 2.8%.

  • Regional Queensland saw the most significant net change in million-dollar suburbs, with 30 new entries (25 houses, 5 units). The Gold Coast (55) and Sunshine Coast (53) dominate this market, accounting for 50% and 48.2% of all million-dollar suburbs, respectively. Only two suburbs outside these areas made the list: Goldsborough ($1,067,791) and Palm Cove ($1,022,096) in the Cairns Region—the firm value growth in South East Queensland since COVID has diminished the region's prior affordability advantage.

  • Brisbane is the second most expensive capital city, with a median dwelling value of $875,040.

  • The Gold and Sunshine Coasts are the costliest regional areas, each exceeding $1 million.

Adelaide and Perth

  • In August, 104 of 284 Adelaide suburbs had median house values at or above $1 million, up from 75 last year.

  • None of the city's 76 unit markets had a seven-figure median.

  • Adelaide's South region (12) had the biggest rise in millionaire house markets, followed by the West (10) and Central and Hills (7).

  • Panorama in the South region led new million-dollar club entrants with a 19.1% increase and $166,432 rise.

  • Values in regional South Australia rose 9.6% over the year, but none of the 79 suburbs analyzed reached a million-dollar median. Mount Compass had the highest median house value at $776,415.

Western Australia

  • Perth's dwelling values grew 24.2% year-over-year to August, leading to a 56.3% rise in seven-figure suburbs.

  • 31-house and four-unit markets joined the club for the first time, and Highgate re-entered, bringing the total to 100.

  • Perth's Inner, North-West, and South-West regions had 26 markets with seven-figure median values in August, while the South-East had 19 and the North-East had three.

  • Mandurah is now the only SA4 region in Perth without a million-dollar market.

  • Nine of Perth's ten priciest house markets are in the Cottesloe – Claremont area, with Dalkeith having the highest median at $3,505,377.

  • All four new million-dollar markets (Cottesloe, Crawley, Floreat, Swanbourne) are in the exclusive beachside area.

  • Regional WA recorded a 19.3% value increase, with Dunsborough ($1,223,279) joining the million-dollar club, bringing the total to three. Quindalup ($1,377,367) and Yallingup ($1,654,267) in Bunbury are the only markets with house medians over $1 million.

Hobart and Canberra

  • Despite Hobart recording the most significant annual decline in dwelling value (-1.2%) among the capitals and rest of state regions, the city's count of million-dollar suburbs remained steady.

  • Just three suburbs (out of 43 in total) recorded a median house value over one million dollars.

  • None of the city’s 13 suburbs with a median unit value recorded a seven-figure price tag.

  • Sandy Bay had the highest median house value at $1,250,946, followed by Acton Park at $1,214,674 and Tranmere at $1,043,802, both in Hobart's North East.

  • With Hobart values down -12.2% from the March 2022 peak, the current count of million-dollar markets (3) is less than half the peak number (7), also recorded in March 2022.

  • None of the 59 house and seven-unit markets in regional Tasmania exceeded a median value of $1 million.

Northern Territory

  • None of the 44 house and 17 unit markets in Darwin and regional NT exceeded a median value of $1 million in August.

  • Fannie Bay houses had the highest median value at $939,517, followed by Nightcliff at $838,272.

Canberra

  • In August, one unit market (Yarralumla) and 45 house markets, or 36.2% of the 127 analyzed suburbs, had a seven-figure median value.

  • Canberra dwelling values increased 1.5% over the year, with six suburbs rejoining the million-dollar club for houses after dropping out in 2022 and 2023.

  • Cook, McKellar, Macarthur, Chifley, and Gungahlin each saw median house values exceed $1 million this year.

  • Values in these suburbs are -4.2% to -15% below previous peaks.

  • Gowrie returned to the million-dollar club in July, reaching a record median value of $1,018,175.

Northern Territory

  • None of the 44 house and 17 unit markets in Darwin and regional NT exceeded a median value of $1 million in August.

  • Fannie Bay houses had the highest median value at $939,517, followed by Nightcliff at $838,272.

Would you like to see if your suburb made it onto the list? If so click on the link below.

The Expatriate always tries to make sure all information is accurate. However, when reading our website, please always consider our Disclaimer policy.