In The News! 🌏

Market Conditions and what to look out for this week 🗓️

AUD Outlook and Market Performance

• Rabobank is predicting continued outperformance for the Australian Dollar (AUD).

• Rabobank anticipates the RBA raising interest rates twice in 2024, in August and November, to combat persistent domestic inflation.

• Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, stated, "Most recent Australian economic data have cemented our expectations for further rate hikes this cycle."

AUD/USD

• The pair started trading weaker, around 0.6770, in the early Asian session on Monday, though it has regained momentum.

• AUD traded around a six-month high of 0.6798, supported by a weaker USD following softer-than-expected US CPI data in June.

• Expectations for a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September rose.

• Traders awaited the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and US Producer Price Index (PPI) for further US economic insights.

AUD/NZD

• The pair is still trading at 20-month highs following the RBNZ's decision last week to hold interest rates at 5.5%.

• The RBNZ signalled towards a rate cut later this year, pressuring the NZD.

• High inflation in Australia is driving strength in the Aussie, the RBA are eying inflation data closely.

Gold Price 

• Gold traded near $2,405 on Monday, pressured by higher-than-expected US Wholesale price inflation in June.

• Gold rallied within a range, approaching its May 20 all-time high of $2,450.

• Instead of forming a topping pattern, Gold might be in a sideways consolidation, pausing within a broader uptrend.

• Short-term, Gold appeared in a sideways trend, with a floor around $2,280 and a ceiling at $2,450.

Last Week 🗞️ Key Takeaways:

AUD Market Overview

• AUD traded at multi-month highs against USD, EUR, and NZD due to high inflation in Australia.

• The RBA is expected to be one of the last G10 central banks to cut interest rates.

  Rising copper and iron ore prices contributed to AUD strength.

AUD/USD

• - Reached 7-month highs.

  Continued upward trend due to pressure on the US central bank to lower rates as inflation eased.

• Rates hovered around 0.6758 mid-market.

AUD/NZD

• Reached a 20-month high.

• RBNZ held the cash rate at 5.50%, causing a 1% increase in the pair on Wednesday.

• Investors priced in a 60% chance of an RBNZ rate cut in August.

• Rates were around 1.1085 mid-market.

AUD/GBP

• The market remained unaffected by the election.

• AUD/GBP stayed between 0.5250 and 0.5280 over the last two weeks.

• The rate was stable throughout the general election, with labor expected to regain power.

AUD/EUR

• AUD/EUR reached its highest level since June 2023, around 0.6235.

• The EUR struggled after the ECB cut interest rates, with more cuts expected in the coming months.

Things to look out for this week; 

Monday 15th July

• 🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index - USD 

  Tuesday 16th July 

• 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks - USD 

• 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales m/m - USD 

• 🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m - USD 

• 🇨🇦 CPI m/m - CAD 

• 🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - CAD 

• 🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - CAD 

  Wednesday 17th July

  🇳🇿 CPI q/q - NZD

  🇬🇧 CPI y/y - GBP 

  Thursday 18th July

  🇦🇺 Employment Change - AUD

  🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate - AUD

  🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change - GBP 

  🇪🇺 Main Refinancing Rate - EUR

  🇪🇺 Monetary Policy Statement - EUR

  🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference - EUR

  🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - USD 

  Friday 19th July

  🇬🇧 Retail Sales m/m - GBP

  🇨🇦 Core Retail Sales m/m - CAD 

  🇨🇦 Retail Sales m/m - CAD  

AUD-USD 🇺🇸

Rates have continued rise over the last week at 0.6668.

(11AM AEDT)

AUD-GBP 🇬🇧

Sitting 0.5219 the AUD - GBP has had a slight decrease since this time last week.

(11AM AEDT)

AUD-NZD 🇳🇿

Rates have continuously risen over the last week sitting at 1.1097.

(11AM AEDT)

AUD-EUR 🇪🇺

AUD to the EUR has continued trading within a tight band over the last week at 0.6215.

(11AM AEDT)

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