In The News🌏 – Market Conditions and what to look out for this week 🗓️

AUD/USD

• AUD/USD trades around 0.6605, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar due to robust U.S. economic data and tensions in the Middle East.

  The Australian Dollar may regain ground if RBA maintains its hawkish stance.

• The RBA currently holds a cash rate of 4.35%, aimed at controlling inflation within the 2%-3% target range while supporting employment.

• The central bank is unlikely to consider rate cuts in the near term, pending key domestic inflation data this week.

• Australia's Judo Bank Services PMI rose to 50.6 in October, indicating nine consecutive months of growth in the services sector.

AUD/GBP

• Expected Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts could soften the Pound.

• AUD/GBP is nearing a multi-month low of 0.5050 as the Aussie continues its poor run.

• Since the start of October, the Australian dollar has given up almost 2.5% against the pound as global risk sentiment and a slow Chinese economy continue to weigh on the AUD.

AUD/JPY

• AUD/JPY trades around 101.20, breaking a three-day winning streak.

• AUD/JPY sees limited JPY upside as Japan’s ruling party loses its majority in a blow to the new prime minister.

• Growing concerns over Japan’s political future may impact the Bank of Japan's policy outlook.

Gold Price Movements

• Gold holds below $2,750 but shows limited downside due to global political uncertainties.

• Bearish technical indicators, including a head and shoulders pattern, suggest potential for deeper declines if the $2,705 support level is breached.

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Last Week 🗞️ Key Takeaways

RBA and Global Rate Cuts:

• The RBA is expected to keep rates on hold until May next year after some strong domestic employment data slashed chances of a rate cut this year.

• Rate cuts from other central banks, such as the Fed in America and the RBNZ, are pressuring discussions on potential easing elsewhere.

AUD/USD Outlook:

• AUD/USD rose to 0.6715 in Monday's early session, supported by the weaker USD and Australia's strong employment data, which lowers the likelihood of an RBA rate cut.

• Investors await Fed officials' speeches, which may influence USD moves and broader market sentiment.

• China’s stronger-than-expected industrial production and retail sales have boosted AUD, as China remains a key trade partner.

AUD/JPY:

• AUD/JPY weakened to 100.50 on Friday due to fears of Japanese intervention in FX markets.

• It continues to trade within a 1.7% trading band, staying close to the 100.00 mark.

EUR/AUD:

• EUR/AUD dropped as robust Australian employment data clashed with the ECB’s decision to cut rates by 0.25%, reflecting a weaker European outlook.

GBP/AUD Forecast:

• The Pound has been overvalued against the AUD, but recent broad-based AUD strength has led to corrections, with the current GBP/AUD rate around 1.9472. Year-end projections suggest further downside potential for the GBP against the AUD, with a wide forecast range of 1.83–2.03.

Things to look out for this week; 

• Tuesday 29 October

  🇨🇦 BOC Gov Macklem Speaks - CAD

• Wednesday 30 October 

  🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence - USD

  🇺🇸 JOLTS Job Openings - USD

  🇦🇺 CPI q/q - AUD

  🇦🇺 CPI y/y - AUD

  🇦🇺 Trimmed Mean CPI q/q - AUD

  🇩🇪 German Prelim CPI m/m - EUR

  🇺🇸 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change - USD

  🇺🇸 Advance GDP q/q - USD

• Thursday 31 October 

  🇨🇳 Manufacturing PMI - CNY

  🇯🇵 BOJ Policy Rate - JPY

  🇯🇵 Monetary Policy Statement - JPY

  🇯🇵 BOJ Outlook Report - JPY

  🇯🇵 BOJ Press Conference - JPY

  🇨🇦 GDP m/m - CAD

  🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index m/m - USD

  🇺🇸 Employment Cost Index q/q - USD

  🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - USD

• Friday 1 November

  🇨🇭 CPI m/m - CHF

  🇺🇸 Average Hourly Earnings m/m - USD

  🇺🇸 Non-Farm Employment Change - USD

  🇺🇸 Unemployment Rate - USD

  
  
  

AUD-USD 🇺🇸

Rates have decreased by 1.65% to 0.6595 since this time last week.

(2PM AEDT 28/10/2024)

AUD-GBP 🇬🇧

Sitting at 0.5092 the AUD - GBP has dropped since Wednesday 23 Oct by 1.04%

(2PM AEDT 28/10/2024)

AUD-NZD 🇳🇿

Rates have remained within the 1.1030-1.1070 trading band throughout the last week

(2PM AEDT 28/10/2024)

AUD-EUR 🇪🇺

AUR-EUR has seen a 1.19% decrease since this time last week currently at 0.6113

(2PM AEDT 28/10/2024)

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