Newsletter 17 - THE EXPATRIATE - Sponsors CPTU - CoreLogic HVI August, Timing the Property Market, Controversial 45-Day Expat Rule.
On the first weekend of September,
THE EXPATRIATE Team headed to Tropical North Queensland to support the inaugural Cairns Port Douglas Trail Ultra.
The Cairns Port Douglas Trail Ultra attracted 500+ runners, with 70% of the entrants from out of region and with more females entered than men for what may well be for the first time in the history of a trail running event is the brainchild of THE EXPATRIATE Creative director Shona Stephenson who wanted to answer the question for trail runners, “How Long does it take to run from Cairns to Port Douglas via the Wet Tropics World Heritage Listed area?”
16:09:38 if you are chased by a male Cassowary! YES, CPTU120 winner WAS Chased by a male Cassowary!
They were joined by your Australian Expatriate Mortgage specialist Adam Kingston from Australian Expatriate Finance and awarded the CPTU120 runners their prize money.
While the team was away, we saw the Reserve Bank of Australia raise the cash rate by .5% to the now cash rate of 2.35%. Adam Kingston our Mortgage Specialist wrote a great blog about interest rate rises and it affects on your potential your borrowing power .
A Snippet From Adam’s Blog Below;
“If we now applied for a loan (after interest rates have increased by 1%) then the maximum loan amount we could borrow will have reduced from $1,000,000 to $897,000, a reduction in borrowings of $103,000.
If interest rates continue to increase this year and into next year, if rates increase by a further 1%, then the same person would now only be able to borrow $808,000. A 2% increase would reduce the available debt to $733,000.”
“CoreLogic’s national Home Value Index (HVI) recorded a fourth consecutive month of decline in August, with the downturn accelerating and becoming more geographically broad-based. Down - 1.6% over the month, the national index recorded the largest month-on-month decline since 1983.”
“As borrowing power is eroded by higher interest rates and rising household expenses due to inflation, it’s reasonable to expect a further decline in consumer confidence and lower housing demand,” Mr Lawless said.
The heat has well and truly come out of the market across all sectors except for Regional South Australia and Darwin. Both of these areas recorded slight growth of 0.2% and 0.9% receptively. All other capital cities and regions recorded negative growth for August.
Stock returning to the market with 23,097 new listings over the four weeks ending on 28th August, which is 13.5% above the new listings recorded last year and 6.5% above the 5yr average. There were 87,835 active listings over the four weeks of August, 11.3% above the same time last year but -9.5% below the 5yr average.
This leads us to a great blog by our Property Specialist Chris Gray, from Your Empire Buyers Agents. Answering the question about timing the Property market called.
“Would you Gamble your family Home?”
Here is a snippet from his blog below;
“The moment you try to "time the market", you roll the dice.
Sure, some people win and the market falls before they buy again, though given there are absolutely no signals as to when (or how much) a market can turn and rapidly rise, you could end up with the money from your sale and watch it rapidly become less valuable in the market you are looking to buy.
Keep in mind that for many decades, the long-term movement of property prices has been "up", so if you gamble on a market falling, you're actually betting against a historical average. It doesn't sound like a good bet to me, especially if you are putting your family home on the line.
If you buy back into a market as quickly as you can, then you take far less risk and you are a much greater chance of entering back into the same market that you left with no net loss.”
Dean Crossingham gives us the HEADS UP on the controversial 45 day rule.
“On the On Wednesday 24 August 2022, Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services Stephen Jones reminded us that the proposed changes to Australia’s tax residency rules are currently under review by the government, as is the controversial “45-day rule”.
The Australian Financial Review has reported that, while speaking at an Australian Chamber of Commerce event to those of the Australian and Singapore business community, Assistant Treasurer Jones said the new rules for deciding Australian tax residency were in the “government’s in-tray” ahead of the October budget, and the day limit was “being looked at”.
The proposed amendments have been criticised as being overwhelmingly unfavourable to those Australian expats who reside in a country that does not have a double-tax agreement (tax treaty) with Australia. If these changes were to go ahead, many Australian expats would onerously be treated as tax residents if they spend at least 45 days in Australia in an income year.”
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