Send Currency Update 15th July 2024
In The News! 🌏
Market Conditions and what to look out for this week 🗓️
AUD Outlook and Market Performance
Rabobank is predicting continued outperformance for the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Rabobank anticipates the RBA raising interest rates twice in 2024, in August and November, to combat persistent domestic inflation.
Jane Foley, Senior FX Strategist at Rabobank, stated, "Most recent Australian economic data have cemented our expectations for further rate hikes this cycle."
AUD/USD
The pair started trading weaker, around 0.6770, in the early Asian session on Monday, though it has regained momentum.
AUD traded around a six-month high of 0.6798, supported by a weaker USD following softer-than-expected US CPI data in June.
Expectations for a potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September rose.
Traders awaited the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and US Producer Price Index (PPI) for further US economic insights.
AUD/NZD
The pair is still trading at 20-month highs following the RBNZ's decision last week to hold interest rates at 5.5%.
The RBNZ signalled towards a rate cut later this year, pressuring the NZD.
High inflation in Australia is driving strength in the Aussie, the RBA are eying inflation data closely.
Gold Price
Gold traded near $2,405 on Monday, pressured by higher-than-expected US Wholesale price inflation in June.
Gold rallied within a range, approaching its May 20 all-time high of $2,450.
Instead of forming a topping pattern, Gold might be in a sideways consolidation, pausing within a broader uptrend.
Short-term, Gold appeared in a sideways trend, with a floor around $2,280 and a ceiling at $2,450.
Last Week 🗞️ Key Takeaways:
AUD Market Overview
AUD traded at multi-month highs against USD, EUR, and NZD due to high inflation in Australia.
The RBA is expected to be one of the last G10 central banks to cut interest rates.
Rising copper and iron ore prices contributed to AUD strength.
AUD/USD
- Reached 7-month highs.
Continued upward trend due to pressure on the US central bank to lower rates as inflation eased.
Rates hovered around 0.6758 mid-market.
AUD/NZD
Reached a 20-month high.
RBNZ held the cash rate at 5.50%, causing a 1% increase in the pair on Wednesday.
Investors priced in a 60% chance of an RBNZ rate cut in August.
Rates were around 1.1085 mid-market.
AUD/GBP
The market remained unaffected by the election.
AUD/GBP stayed between 0.5250 and 0.5280 over the last two weeks.
The rate was stable throughout the general election, with labor expected to regain power.
AUD/EUR
AUD/EUR reached its highest level since June 2023, around 0.6235.
The EUR struggled after the ECB cut interest rates, with more cuts expected in the coming months.
Things to look out for this week;
Monday 15th July
🇺🇸 Empire State Manufacturing Index - USD
Tuesday 16th July
🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Speaks - USD
🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales m/m - USD
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m - USD
🇨🇦 CPI m/m - CAD
🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - CAD
🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - CAD
Wednesday 17th July
🇳🇿 CPI q/q - NZD
🇬🇧 CPI y/y - GBP
Thursday 18th July
🇦🇺 Employment Change - AUD
🇦🇺 Unemployment Rate - AUD
🇬🇧 Claimant Count Change - GBP
🇪🇺 Main Refinancing Rate - EUR
🇪🇺 Monetary Policy Statement - EUR
🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference - EUR
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - USD
Friday 19th July
🇬🇧 Retail Sales m/m - GBP
🇨🇦 Core Retail Sales m/m - CAD
🇨🇦 Retail Sales m/m - CAD
AUD-USD 🇺🇸
Rates have continued rise over the last week at 0.6668.
(11AM AEDT)
AUD-GBP 🇬🇧
Sitting 0.5219 the AUD - GBP has had a slight decrease since this time last week.
(11AM AEDT)
AUD-NZD 🇳🇿
Rates have continuously risen over the last week sitting at 1.1097.
(11AM AEDT)
AUD-EUR 🇪🇺
AUD to the EUR has continued trading within a tight band over the last week at 0.6215.
(11AM AEDT)
