Highlights from 2024 and what it means for 2025

Through 2025, we expect the economic landscape to be shaped by fiscal policy, evolving trade dynamics and divergent regional growth trajectories.

In a year peppered with many notable elections, the global economy was marked by heightened economic uncertainty in 2024. Despite concerns at the start of the year that restrictive monetary policy would weigh on GDP, growth surprised to the upside and recessions in the key developed market economies were avoided. A gradual cooling of labour markets - lower vacancies and lower wage growth without a significant increase in unemployment – combined with progress in taming inflation has allowed central banks to pivot policy towards gradual rate cuts.

But with the major elections behind us, it’s time for governments to start implementing their policies. Here are some key factors to consider.

Thank You, St. James’s Place Asia and Middle East, for sharing the latest financial market update with THE EXPATRIATE community. This week’s SJP WeekWatch discusses the following;

• Stock Take - The impact of 50% of the world’s population voting in an election in 2024, and in many instances, people voted for change.

  • Trump's tariffs and how nations may respond.

  • The challenges nations face are tackling inflation, high interest rates and avoiding debt crises.

• Wealth Check - Five tax-smart tips for managing your money in 2025.

• In the picture - business confidence in Europe is weak after a year of slow growth, which is wildly contrasting to business confidence in the US.

• The Last Word - How will Britton fix the NHS?

Introducing Alexis, a Financial Planning Specialist in Singapore.

Introducing Eleanor Coleman, Financial Planning Specialist, Hong Kong.

Introducing Eleanor Coleman, a financial planning specialist based in Hong Kong. Eleanor Coleman is the Partner and Founder of the Financial Empowerment Group, a St. James’s Place Asia partner, and the owner of the “Man is Not a Plan” series. Her mission is to help women feel in control of their money and empowered by their investments so that they can feel confident about their financial future.

St. James’s Place WeekWatch 9th December 2024

Stock Take

• The 2024 news cycle has focused mainly on the US and UK elections and conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East but is now shifting focus to developments in France and South Korea.

• Starting in France, Prime Minister Michel Barnier resigned on Wednesday last week after losing a vote of no confidence.

• The French Parliament is divided among Macron’s centrist party, a left-wing alliance, and the right-wing National Rally. Barnier tried to resolve this for next year’s budget but could not satisfy two of the three groups.

Stanford Brown, Meet the investor, Kyle McCarthy, Executive Vice President and Private Credit Strategist at PIMCO.

Stanford Brown - Meet the investor Kyle McCarthy, Executive Vice President and Private Credit Strategist at PIMCO

In this episode of Meet the Investor, Principal, Senior Investment Director, Private Office Adviser Joey Mouracadeh is joined by, the world’s largest fixed-income manager with over $2 trillion in assets under management Kyle McCarthy. Kyle takes us into asset-based lending, a growing segment within private credit, where PIMCO has deployed over $190 billion in the last decade.

St. James’s Place WeekWatch 18th November 2024

US

• Wall Street extended its post-election rally and set new highs at the beginning of the week.

• On Wednesday, the US Labor Department reported that consumer price inflation rose to an annual rate of 2.6%. Higher service costs also increased US producer inflation in October, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates as expected.

• Wall Street rose as inflation data suggested the Fed may cut rates in December. However, global stocks fell as investors favoured assets benefiting from the president-elect's policies, also known as the “Trump Trade.”

Key takeaways from the final RBA Monetary Statement from November 2024.

Underlying inflation remains too high.

Headline inflation has fallen sharply in recent months, as expected, due to declines in fuel and electricity prices.

The RBA assessment shows that demand in the economy still exceeds supply and that the labour market remains tight.

SB Talks - Trump 2.0, New Neutral & Portfolio Tilts. SB Talks aims to help investors cut through all the media noise and hype and understand what drives investment markets and portfolio returns. In this episode of SB Talks, Stanford Brown CEO Vincent O’Neill speaks with Chief Investment Officer Nick Ryder to discuss the following:

• What the Republican sweep in the US means for tariffs, taxes and growth

• Why the Fed and RBA are in no hurry to get to ‘neutral’ rates

• Recent adjustments to our equity exposures

Thank you, David Gardner and St James’s Place Asia and Middle East, for sharing your valuable market insights with our community in the SJP 11th November Weekwatch. This week, the focus is on the US Election 2024, Interest rates in US and UK, Tarrifs and how they are already impacting production levels in China. The posibility of a snap election in Germany , plus Wealthwatch and In the Picture.

Thank You, Nick Ryder, Stanford Brown CIO, for sharing the latest Stanford Brown Monthly Investment Markets Report for November 2024.4.

The report aims to help investors navigate the media noise and hype and understand what drives investment markets and portfolio returns.

This month, Nick and the Stanford Brown Teamtackle some of the most pressing questions for longer-term investors:

• Key developments over the month

• Performance of major financial markets

• Current investment outlook and portfolio positioning

• Views on major asset classes

If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact your Adviser.

Australian Life Insurance for Ex-Pats.

Australian non-residents can apply for Life cover, Total and Permanent Disability, Trauma and Income Protection. These covers are summarised below;

• Life insurance provides a lump sum payment to beneficiaries in the event of death. This payment can help cover expenses such as funeral costs and outstanding debts and provide financial support for dependents

US election: What does Trump's victory mean for markets?

At a glance:

• Donald Trump’s policy promises, such as increased tariffs, could raise inflation in the US, while the longer-term impact on China may be more nuanced.

• We expect to see short-term market volatility, both up and down, but we do not act on speculation. We remain anchored to our long-term investment views.

• Avoiding a knee-jerk or emotional response after such a divisive election is essential.

In this episode of SB Talks, Stanford Brown CEO Vincent O’Neill speaks with Chief Investment Officer Nick Ryder to discuss:

• Bond market moves ahead of US election

• Australian inflation and the repricing of rate cut prospects

• Key takeaways from the US earnings reporting season

To listen to the update you can download the audio as a podcast below or listen on spotify.

In this episode of SB Talks, Stanford Brown CEO Vincent O’Neill speaks with Chief Investment Officer Nick Ryder to discuss the following:

• The new Stanford Brown Responsible Investment (RI) Policy

• How we think about terms like RI, ESG, ethical investing and impact investments

• Whether incorporating RI can improve risk and returns 

• Issues such as transparency and the implications of excluding certain investment types

• How the policy impacts Stanford Brown portfolios depending on client objectives

Thank you, David Gardner and St James’s Place Asia and Middle East, for sharing your valuable market insights with our community in the SJP 15th October Weekwatch. This week, the focus is on the US Election 2024 after a short global financial markets quarter recap.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the unemployment rate in September 2024 stayed at 4.1% after adjustments. The employment-to-population ratio matched its 2023 high of 64.4%, and the participation rate reached 67.2%.

Thank you, David Gardner and St James’s Place Asia and Middle East, for sharing your valuable market insights with our community in the SJP 7th October Weekwatch.

Stock Take

• Chinese and US markets rose last week despite geopolitical fears in the Middle East, while European and Japanese shares struggled.

• Concerns about Israel and Iran caused oil prices to increase. Brent crude oil rose 9.2% to $78.23 a barrel, marking the largest weekly gain in almost two years, as low global oil supplies pushed prices up.

• High energy prices contributed to the high inflation affecting the global economy after the pandemic. However, despite last week's increase, oil prices remain significantly lower than their peak of nearly $90 a barrel in April and far from the over $120 levels of 2022.

SB Talks: Middle Eastern conflict, US employment and Chinese stimulus.

In this episode of SB Talks, Stanford Brown CEO Vincent O’Neill speaks with Chief Investment Officer Nick Ryder to discuss the following:

• Implications of the Israel-Iran conflict for financial markets

• US Fed meeting minutes and the latest US jobs report

• China’s ‘Whatever it takes’ Stimulus Announcements

• Reflection on the last quarter and outlook for the rest of the year

Stanford Brown Quarterly Investments Market Report Q3, 2024

Thank you, Chief Investment Officer, Nick Ryder from Stanford Brown, for sharing your  Stanford Brown Quarterly Investment Markets Report for the third quarter 2024 with THE EXPATRIATE community.

This month, SB tackles some of the most pressing questions for longer-term investors:

• What happened over the quarter

• Performance of major financial markets

• Current investment outlook and portfolio positioning

• Views on major asset classes

• Current portfolio allocations