Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate by .25 to 3.85%
At its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of Australia Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85 per cent. It was expressed that inflation in Australia has passed its peak, but at 7 per cent is regarded to be too high, and it will take time to be back in the target range. Therefore, the Board decided a further increase in interest rates was warranted today.
“The Board held interest rates steady last month to provide additional time to assess the state of the economy and the outlook. While the recent data showed a welcome decline in inflation, the central forecast remains that it takes a couple of years before inflation returns to the top of the target range; inflation is expected to be 4½ per cent in 2023 and 3 per cent in mid-2025. Goods price inflation is clearly slowing due to a better balance of supply and demand following the resolution of the pandemic disruptions. But services price inflation is still very high and broadly based and the experience overseas points to upside risks. Unit labour costs are also rising briskly, with productivity growth remaining subdued.”
Source - Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Phillip Lowe
Wages growth picked up due to the tight labour market and high inflation, yet remained consistent with the inflation target, provided that productivity growth picks up. The board will pay close attention to wages, unemployment rate, and price-setting behaviour of firms.
“The Board is still seeking to keep the economy on an even keel as inflation returns to the 2–3 per cent target range, but the path to achieving a soft landing remains a narrow one. The central forecast is for the economy to continue growing, albeit at a below-trend pace; GDP is forecast to increase by 1¼ per cent this year and around 2 per cent over the year to mid-2025. Given the expected below-trend growth in the economy, the unemployment rate is forecast to increase gradually to be around 4½ per cent in mid-2025.”
Source - Governor: Monetary Policy Decision Phillip Lowe
The RBA warned that some further tightening of monetary policy might be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve. The Board will continue to pay close attention to developments in the global economy, trends in household spending and the outlook for inflation and the labour market. The Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that.
