Newsletter 24 - 2023 Outlook for Property, Interest Rates, Financial Market Outlook and More
Springs Beach Agnes Water
Welcome Back from your banana lounge as Lauren Staley from Infolio Property would put it, we hope you all had a chance to steal away to a fantastic location like THE EXPATRIATE team did in Central Queensland, a little town called Agnes Water and probably one of Australia’s best-kept secrets.
Source Stanford Brown
If you missed the updates over the holidays, here are all the quick links to the blogs written by THE EXPATRIATE specialists.
First up let’s see what Stanford Brown thinks about the financial market of 2022 and leading into 2023. They have also helped tackle some of the most pressing questions for longer-term investors:
Source Stanford Brown
Inflation and interest rates – Where are we now? - and how high will they go?
Share markets – Are they cheap yet, or still expensive? – and where to from here?
Spending is slowing, but we still sitting on a huge mountain of cash to spend – where did it all come from?
Source Stanford Brown
The FTX collapse – is this the end for crypto? Or just a bump in the road?
To see the answers to those questions, click on the button below;
Property Specialist Outlook
If you’d like the cheat notes from THE EXPATRIATE Property Specialist and be quickly informed on the property market before the season kicks off again, click on the link below to our YouTube video of property specialists and buyers Agents Sydney Chris Gray from Your Empire, Melbourne Lauren Staley from Infolio Property and Brisbane Zoran Solano from Hot Property Buyers Agent and listen to their tips and predictions for 2023.
We want to keep the information balanced for you, so we have also shared the CoreLogic Property Recap 2022 and Outlook 2023 from the super stats guru from CoreLogic Australia, Tim Lawless, research director of CoreLogic Asia Pacific.
To discover his insights about the year that has been and other years to come. We have a 14-minute recap of 2022 for your viewing and the latest Home Value Index Report for December 2022.
CoreLogic have helped us get ahead of the game for 2023 and provided some insights into what might happen in the first six months the year;
CoreLogic Australia Key Points for Consideration for 2023 Outlook
Similar to 2022, the 2023 calendar year could be one of the contrasts; not all regions or capital cities are created equally. Housing affordability is the driving force behind the rapid growth.
Interest rates - CoreLogic is anticipating at least one more increase of +0.25 basis points to be added to the cash rate of now 3.10, this will peak around mid-year.
A surge in fixed-rate loan refinancing is around the corner. 35% of outstanding housing credit is on fixed terms, and 60% is to expire in 2023.
A rise in the number of newly listed properties as pent-up supply flows into the market. The flow of new listings has been abnormally low through the second half of 2022 as prospective vendors postponed or reconsidered their selling decisions in light of worsening housing market conditions. vendors are waiting to reach the top of the interest rate cycle.
As interest rates peak and inflation ease, housing values are likely to stabilise; however, a broad-based rise in housing values would depend on interest rates coming down or on other forms of stimulus. A potential easing credit policy could take the form of a reduction in APRA’s serviceability buffer (currently three percentage points, previously 2.5 percentage points), which could reflect an acknowledgement that mortgage rates aren't likely to rise much further following the recent adjustment from record lows.
Considering how important housing is to the household sector and the broader economy, it’s possible any combination of these outcomes could come to fruition later in the year. Australian housing is valued at approximately $9.4 trillion, almost three times the value of Australian superannuation funds and more than three times the value of Australian listed stocks. The housing comprises roughly 58% of household wealth and 62% of ADI balance sheets.
Rental markets are set to remain tight in 2023.
Resilient labour market conditions are expected to underpin borrower serviceability. Labour market outcomes will be critical in containing mortgage stress and empowering households to keep up with rising interest and rent costs through 2023. Overall, households are expected to be well-placed to deal with rising interest costs through 2023.
To Read the full report, click on the link below.
Relocation News
Relocation Specialist Leona Lees from Claymore Thistle discusses the Australian Rental Vacancy Rates in rental properties and what this means for those Australians returning to Australia and competing in the tightest rental market in decades. The current vacancy rate of 0.8% leaves Australia’s rental market highly competitive. Finding a rental property is challenging; rental prices have drastically increased due to high demand, and landlords have the ball firmly in their courts.
To read the full blog by our relocation specialist, click on the button link below;
Last but not least, if you missed it on our socials over the silly season, our Expat Mortage Specialist, Adam Kingston from Australian Expatriate Finance, has been nominated as a finalist for The Advisor Better Business Awards in two categories;
Thought Leader Award
Best Community Engagement Program Awards
The Expatriate always tries to make sure all information is accurate. However, when reading our website, please always consider our Disclaimer policy.
