Send Payments Weekly trading update.
Send Payments weekly trading update.
In The News 🌏 Market Conditions and what to look out for this week 🗓️
AUD
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is expected to strengthen against the Euro, Pound, and U.S. Dollar through 2025, according to Westpac, a major Australian lender.
Westpac predicts the AUD will rise due to improving global sentiment and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintaining a firm stance on inflation.
Luci Ellis, Chief Economist at Westpac Group, believes that the RBA will not cut the cash rate until inflation is sustainably within the 2–3% target range.
Australia's Consumer Inflation Expectations eased to 4.4% in September, slightly down from the four-month high of 4.5% in August.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD pair gained momentum after expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve boosted investor sentiment.The Fed is due to announce its interest rate decision on Thursday morning.
The AUD/USD reached 0.6733, driven by higher chances of a 50 bps Fed rate cut, as noted by Robert Howard, a Reuters market analyst.
Technical analysis suggests a shift in momentum for the AUD/USD pair from bearish to bullish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moving above 50
AUD/JPY
The AUD/JPY pair trimmed its daily gains but remained higher around 95.10, reflecting improved risk-on sentiment amid speculation of a 50-basis point interest rate cut by the Fed in September.
Naoki Tamura, a Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member, stated there is no predetermined plan for the pace of future rate hikes.
AUD/CNY
The AUD is facing downward pressure as China, a key trading partner for Australia, is preparing to cut interest rates on $5 trillion worth of mortgages, which may impact the AUD's performance.
Reports indicate that several Chinese banks are finalizing preparations for these mortgage rate adjustments, potentially taking effect as the end of September.
Last week 🗞️ Key Takeaways:
Australian Dollar Outlook
The Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the central bank wouldn't be pushed into cutting interest rates until it felt the right conditions were met.
Michele Bullock told an audience at the Anika Foundation that interest rates would remain at current levels as the RBA remained alert to upside inflationary risks. Her message came amidst growing political pressure to cut rates, with Australia's Treasurer Jim Chalmers saying on Monday that high interest rates were "smashing the economy."
The speech was cited as the key domestic event for the Australian Dollar that week, as any overtures to those wanting lower interest rates would have put the currency under pressure.
In response, Bullock stood her ground. When asked by a member of the press if she was "at war with the Treasurer," referencing a comment made by the leader of Australia's political opposition, she replied, "I wouldn't use that choice of words."
Bullock warned against cutting rates too soon, stating that entrenched inflation would "eventually require disinflation, which can have long-lasting costs for households through higher unemployment."
AUD/USD
Disappointment from US job growth data boosted hopes for a Fed interest rate cut.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s hawkish interest rate guidance failed to uplift the Australian Dollar.
The AUD/USD pair surrendered its intraday gains and turned negative in Friday’s North American session. The Aussie asset slumped to near 0.6700 following the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which significantly increased buying interest in the US Dollar (USD).
AUD/USD was pulling back within a short-term downtrend.
AUD/JPY
AUD/JPY edged lower as rising real wages bolstered expectations of further BoJ rate hikes before the end of 2024.
BoJ’s Takata stated, "if the economy and prices move as expected, we will adjust the policy rate in several stages."
Japan’s Labor Cash Earnings grew by 3.6% year-on-year, a deceleration from June's 4.5% increase but the highest since January 1997, surpassing market expectations of 3.1%.
Things to look out for this week;
Tuesday 17 September
🇨🇦 Median CPI y/y - CAD
🇨🇦 CPI m/m - CAD
🇨🇦 Trimmed CPI y/y - CAD
🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales m/m - USD
🇺🇸 Retail Sales m/m - USD
Wednesday 18 September
🇬🇧 CPI y/y - GBP
Thursday 19 September
🇺🇸 Federal Funds Rate - USD
🇺🇸 FOMC Economic Projections - USD
🇺🇸 FOMC Statement - USD
🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference - USD
🇳🇿 GDP q/q - NZD
🇦🇺 Employment Change - AUD
🇦🇺 Unemployment Change - AUD
🇬🇧 Monetary Policy Summary - GBP
🇬🇧 MPC Official Bank Rate Votes - GBP
🇬🇧 Official Bank Rate - GBP
🇺🇸 Unemployment Claims - USD
Friday 20 September
🇯🇵 BOJ Policy Rate - JPY
🇯🇵 Monetary Policy Statement - JPY
🇯🇵 BOJ Press Conference - JPY
🇬🇧 Retail Sales m/m - GBP
🇨🇦 BOC Gov Macklem Speaks - CAD
🇨🇦 Core Retail Sales m/m - CAD
🇨🇦 Retail Sales m/m - CAD
AUD-USD 🇺🇸
Rates have increased by 1.25% to 0.6730 over the last week
AUD-GBP 🇬🇧
Sitting 0.5106 the AUD - GBP trading slightly below the start of the month
AUD-NZD 🇳🇿
Rates have increased since the start of last week at 1.0888
AUD-EUR 🇪🇺
AUR-EUR has increased from the monthly lows, currently at 0.6060
These rates reflect the mid-market rate and are current at the time of writing, but subject to change. Please note that the mid-market rate is the midpoint between the buy and sell prices of a currency in the foreign exchange market. There are many other factors that might impact on pricing and therefore the mid-market rate is not typically the end rate that is offered to consumers by banks or financial services providers. For further information on how Send charges for its services, please see our PDS. This email does not constitute an offer. Any transfers booked with Send will be subject to our Terms and Conditions of use and other key documents.
Warm regards,
The Send Payments Team
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